The US-China competition did not emerge out of a vacuum. It’s built from decades of economic growth, military expansion, and ideological schism

By Sadaf Rao

This century has been defined by a geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. It is thus, a multifaceted battle (militarily, technologically, ideologically, and economically) being played out between competing visions of the global order. The consequences of this power struggle affect not only these two countries but the whole world. As the Asia-Pacific emerges as the center of gravity of a new world, the battle for supremacy between these two giants defines future international relations, economic systems, and security arrangements.

 Historical Context and Strategic Foundations

The US-China competition did not emerge out of a vacuum. It’s built from decades of economic growth, military expansion, and ideological schism. With the conclusion of World War II, the United States emerged as the primary superpower in the world, promoting free-market capitalism, liberal democratic ideas, and a rules-based international order. For most of the 20th century, China spent its time under the iron grasp of communism focusing internally on development and stability. Since the late 1970s when it started implementing economic reforms, however, China’s economy has grown rapidly, rising to the second largest in the world and fundamentally altering the balance of power on the globe.

Economic rivalry is at the heart of the power tussle between the US and China. China’s economy has boomed for the last 30 years or so, averaging GDP growth of more than 6% a year.

What was once termed in some quarters as China’s “peaceful rise” is now increasingly viewed simply as competition to American hegemony. For decades, Washington has accompanied the Asia-Pacific region with its web of security pacts with Japan, South Korea, and Australia. However, China’s greater assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea, has led to alarm that Beijing seeks to alter regional and possibly international rules to align with Chinese national interests.

Economic Competition: Beyond Trade Wars

Economic rivalry is at the heart of the power tussle between the US and China. China’s economy has boomed for the last 30 years or so, averaging GDP growth of more than 6% a year. This expansion has allowed Beijing to project influence with projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a multi-trillion-dollar Asia-to-Europe-to-Africa infrastructure and investment project. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is trying to undermine the primacy that Western economies (including the United States in particular) have long held over international trade networks, and set itself up as the hub.

The United States still possesses the largest economy in the world and with its modern technology, high standard of living, and established global capital markets. However, China’s economic growth creates a challenge for the US since it is regarded as the world’s largest economic power, especially due to China’s remarkable progress in key sectors such as manufacturing, artificial intelligence (AI), and 5G. The 2018-begin U.S.-China trade war that was initiated by then President Donald Trump is among examples of the economic challenges between the two nations. Tariffs and counter-tariffs impacted the two-way billion-dollar trade, but the friction exposed more deep-seated concerns about forced technology transfers, trade distortions, and intellectual property theft.

The technology front is arguably the most significant battlefield in the power struggle between the United States and China.

Even though the two countries signed a trade deal in 2020 tensions linger, with both sides banning exports of various products. Trade wars have turned into a battle for tech supremacy over the economy, as leaders in strategic areas of 5G networks, semiconductors, AI and quantum computing could determine the military and economic power of generations to come.

 Technological Rivalry: The New Frontier of Power

The technology front is arguably the most significant battlefield in the power struggle between the United States and China. Belt and Road global technology dominance and an often-stated goal of overtaking the US leading in an increasing number of advanced technology domains, particularly artificial intelligence but also quantum computing and high-end telecommunications. One of the centerpieces of this conflict has been the case of China’s largest telecom company, Huawei, which has been banned from selling its 5G equipment in the US amid espionage allegations. Washington has pressured allies to do likewise, fearing that China, already dominant in telecoms, would in turn dominate the infrastructure of the future.

While most of the public’s focus has been on the rivalry between China and the United States over technology and the economy, there is just as much to be gained from the military rivalry between the two countries.

In turn, the US administration has been doing several things that are designed to slow down the technological progress China has been making. That includes restrictions on the export of critical technologies, such as semiconductors, which are used in everything from cell phones to military gear. Also, the US has done its part in decoupling its technological supply chains from China with the recognition that so-called “trusted” secure networks free from Chinese influence are essential.

China is moving ahead to nurture domestic innovation and invest heavily in research and development (R&D) to partially reduce its dependence on US technologies. Countries may be compelled to choose between two distinct, rival tech ecosystems as a result of this technological decoupling. A split like this might have a significant impact on supply chains, the digital economy, and worldwide innovation.

Military and Strategic Balancing: Asia-Pacific at the Core

While most of the public’s focus has been on the rivalry between China and the United States over technology and the economy, there is just as much to be gained from the military rivalry between the two countries. The United States has long maintained military superiority in the Asia-Pacific region, and Beijing has been rapidly modernizing its military, especially its naval and missile capabilities, to project power beyond its immediate borders.

Tensions between the US and China have found a hot spot in the South China Sea. Despite an international tribunal verdict that contradicts these claims, Beijing continues to claim almost the whole sea as its territory. The United States exercises “freedom of navigation” in the region, demonstrating its dedication to maintaining open sea lanes and opposing China’s attempts to militarize the area by erecting artificial islands and military outposts.

And Taiwan which China regards as a renegade province should be reunited with the mainland, through force if necessary. U.S. policy toward Taiwan has remained one of “strategic ambiguity,” giving Taiwan arms while not explicitly promising to come to its aid in the event of a Chinese invasion. This delicate equilibrium has become perilous, however, as China’s military has strengthened. Both US and Chinese analysts caution that in the long run biggest flashpoint in the US-China relationship could be a fight over Taiwan one day.

Ideological and Soft Power Contestation

Even with these symbols of brute force included, the US-China competition is more than a battle of raw strength. The US is still promoting human rights, a rules-based international order, and liberal democratic values. By contrast, China revealed rather a new species of government type known as the “growth” state, a classification that mingles economic expansion and autocracy, depriving progress of its democratic prerequisite.

The competition between the USA and China will likely be the defining force of world politics in the coming decades.

In international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the United Nations, China is doing its best to manipulate norms and regulations in its favor. Consequently, its influence in these organizations has grown. Add to this Beijing’s growing sway over world media and its promotion of Chinese loans and investments, especially to the developing world through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the effect is to enhance China’s soft power and provide it the tools for checking U.S. influence in the traditional Western backyard of Africa and Latin America.

 The Future of the U.S.-China Power Struggle

The competition between the USA and China will likely be the defining force of world politics in the coming decades. Then there is also no new Cold War yet, but the competition may lead to one if mismanagement leads to military confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region. However, the two countries’ economic interconnectedness makes it difficult to imagine a pure rivalry because of how tightly intertwined the global economy is and how expensive a complete decoupling would be for all parties.

How other countries will handle this competition is still unknown. In an increasingly divisive world, nations in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America may find themselves in a difficult situation where they must decide between two opposing systems or attempt to remain neutral.

In the end, how well these two countries be able to resolve their differences, find common ground, and stay out of a deadly cycle of mistrust and escalation will determine how this power battle turns out. In addition to influencing their own destinies, the U.S. and China’s interactions in the ensuing decades will have a significant impact on the international system of the twenty-first century.