•    Korea, which erases thoughts of children and family… The secret to the highest low birth rate gap

•    Korea, ultra-fast growth → workaholism to maintain consumption → daily life with no time to think about marriage or children

•    “Media only encourages entertainment and consumption”… Panelists from each country emphasize the role of media in overcoming low birth rates

•    Professor Kwak Geum-ju “Raising children strengthens multitasking, interpersonal relationships, concentration, patience, and strategic thinking”

Korean Seminar on Causes of Low Birth Rates in Asia and Countermeasures will be held on Thursday, November 7, 2024 n the South Korean capital city of Seoul. 

“The difference in actual birth rates by country is almost 90% similar to the desired fertility of each country (women), so the difference is caused by the difference in the desired fertility rate itself.” ― Lant Pritchett, <Desired Fertility and the Impact of Population Policies, 1994>

Low birth rates are a general trend across the globe, and experts have analyzed that there is no country on Earth where the falling total fertility rate (TFR) has turned upward.

East Asia, where advanced Asian countries such as Korea, China, and Japan are located, is experiencing a significant decline in birth rates, and Southeast Asian countries also showed a birth rate emergency as the regional average total fertility rate in 2021 fell below the replacement fertility rate (2.1) that maintains the population (2.05).

Allen Ng, head of the Macroeconomic Monitoring Group at AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Institute), said in a presentation at an international seminar titled “Causes of Low Birth Rates in Asia and Countermeasures,” to be held at the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea on November 7 (local time in Seoul), “As the level of economic development increases, the TFR will continue to decline and, even in an optimistic scenario, it will not reach the replacement level of the fertility rate (2.1).”

This seminar, co-hosted by Rep. Jin Sun-mee of the Education Committee of the National Assembly and Rep. Oh Ki-hyung of the Planning and Finance Committee and organized by the Tax and Finance Newspaper, was sponsored by the Presidential Committee on Local Government.

Based on AMRO data and research results, Group Director Allen Ng will present the birth rate, life expectancy, aging trends and outlook, and related policies of the ASEAN+3 member countries, which consist of Korea, Japan, China, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), in a presentation titled “The Demographic Imperative.”

It is explained that a major shock can be prevented to some extent through social structure, religious beliefs, economic prosperity, urbanization and access to contraception, etc. that can affect the birth rate. The case of Nagi Village in Japan, which reversed the total fertility rate from 1.4 in 2005 to 2.7 in 2021 due to a culture and norm that emphasizes extended families, will also be introduced.

At the seminar that day, experts from each Asian country will come out and seek solutions to the low birth rate based on social psychology, culture, religion, generational differences, and universal values such as family according to each country's unique circumstances such as economic development phase, history, culture, politics, and legal system.

Professor Mikito Masuda (Economics) of Komazawa University said in a pre-interview with the seminar preparation team, "When people become wealthy, they reduce the number of children to improve the quality of their children, so the birth rate decreases." This is in the same context as Group Leader Amro Allen Ng.

Professor Masuda suggested, “If young men and women are given more opportunities to live together, it will be easier to decide to get married, and more marriages will guarantee more children,” and “Local governments should transform themselves into attractive places for young women, and to do this, they should change gender role awareness and culture.” He also introduced an empirical study that proved that low rents and education costs in Miyazaki Prefecture, the second-highest in Japan, are the secrets to its relatively high birth rate. He also suggested a “village education” policy like Nagi Village, which Group Leader Allen Ng cited as an example. 

Professor Pham Thi Minh Thuy of the National Academy of Politics and Regional Politics in Ho Chi Minh City said in a previous interview that “Vietnam’s population exceeded 100 million in mid-April 2023, but Vietnam’s total fertility rate, which was 2.01 in 2022, fell to 1.95 in 2023, and the population growth rate will peak at 0 in 2069.” 

Professor Pham explained that “many jobs have disappeared due to automation in Vietnam and the unemployment rate has skyrocketed,” and that “competition for decent jobs is fierce, and even if they manage to find a job, they have to spend a lot of money on retraining to maintain their job.” He added that other factors that discourage marriage include the “preference for sons,” gender role inequality between couples, and the burden of childcare for divorced women. He emphasized that “the way to solve the low birth rate problem beyond the law is to have an incentive mechanism that motivates people to work with peace of mind and allows them to donate their talents,” and that “sex education, community responsibility, racial protection, and cultural beliefs should be included.”

The case of Egypt, which has pursued a population reduction policy through family planning for decades unlike Asian countries, was also introduced. Ashraf Dali, Secretary General of the Congress of African Journalists (CAJ), said in a prior interview, “Since the introduction of female contraception in the 1980s, the total fertility rate in Egypt, which was 5.3, has fallen to 3.6 in 1995, 3.0 in 2008, and 2.9 recently, and is converging to the replacement fertility rate level of 2.1.”

The explanation that Egypt’s tradition of early marriage and the idea of ‘preferring sons’ gave rise to a culture of having many children was also notable. “In Islamic culture, controlling births is seen as an ‘act against God’s will,’” said General Secretary Ashraf, dismissing some prejudices that “Muslims have many children to expand their sect.”

General Secretary Ashraf, who served as the president of the Asia Journalist Association (AJA) until the end of this year due to his experience working in Kuwait in West Asia, diagnosed that “Koreans’ living expenses and luxury goods also increased during the period when national income increased, and they had to work more to maintain a high level of consumption.” 

He added that “since they spend more time outside, they have less time to spend with their families, and if they are self-employed and have to work all day to earn more money, their daily lives with their families have been reduced even more.” As a media expert, he criticized that “Korean newspapers and media platforms are very developed, but they are not a means of promoting family values, but are only focused on news and entertainment.” 

In addition, he shared his experience interviewing Lee Hee-beom, chairman of Booyoung Group in Korea, and encouraged him by saying, “If companies, the government, and academia work together, Korea can also escape the low birth rate cliff.” Psychologist Professor Emeritus Kwak Geum-joo of Seoul National University, who chaired the seminar, pointed out, “People think that they won’t be able to do what they want to do when they have children, but the difficult childcare can actually be an opportunity for tremendous self-development.” He pointed out that the environment where one must protect and care for children greatly enhances, multitasking, interpersonal skills, concentration, motivation, patience, and strategy planning abilities, etc.

He explained that the sense of responsibility for children and the constraints of time and space serve as tremendous motivation for the brain, resulting in a literally superhuman - human development process. There are cases where financial difficulties must be overcome, but he pointed out that the complaints of middle-aged people who indulged in spending money they earned when they were young and ended up in their 40s without assets, children (family), or outstanding job skills are definitely not to be ignored.

Professor Kwak said, “It may be more difficult to travel alone with a child to gain diverse experiences, but there are many cases where you learn things you didn’t know through the eyes of a child,” adding, “You have no choice but to make more detailed plans for your child’s safety and education, and leadership that creates motivational energy even when it’s difficult is also born in that desperate environment.”

In addition, Zhou Weibo, the representative of the China People’s Daily Online Korea branch, will introduce China’s low birth rate problem and solutions. In a pre-seminar interview with the seminar preparation team, Zhou Weibo said, “The fact that China’s overall population has been decreasing for two consecutive years is the result of various social factors such as fear of childbirth and economic burden,” and “The Chinese government is actively introducing various policies to address the low birth rate.”

Maria Dimentova, Seoul bureau chief of the Russian media outlet RIA Novosti, will introduce the case of Russia, where the policy of restricting religion (Russian Orthodox Church) during the Soviet Union and the breakdown of families during the economic hardships following the collapse of the Soviet Union have recently led to negative thoughts about the family among the Russian Millennium Z (MZ) generation.

Park So-hye, a visiting researcher at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University and an expert on North Korea, will introduce the total fertility rate in North Korea, the prospect of entering a super-aged society in 2050, and preferential policies for families with many children.

Lee Dong-gi, head of the Tax Training Institute of the Korean Tax Accountants Association (Certified Public Accountant in the United States), will analyze and present the fact that tax benefits for labor are less than those for the other two production factors by comparing Korea’s tax systems for land, labor, and capital. He will present that, although taxes are not the direct cause of the low birth rate, they are an important area that changes the future of a country’s economy and society in the mid- to long-term.