I am not an economist or a specialist in this field, but what is confirmed to me by all experts and those familiar with economic conditions is that the economy is a state before it is numbers and theories. Whenever a state of optimism prevails among people, the greater the opportunity to overcome crises, no matter how difficult they are. Optimism means popular confidence in overcoming crises, giving strength to economic policy planning to work away from pressure. The most dangerous thing any economic official fears is the prevalence of fear and anxiety in the markets because it leads to confusion, perhaps chaos, and ignites conflicts that affect every economic action and spoils its effect. Therefore, all economic thinkers consider optimism as part of the solution to every crisis.

Certainly, the required optimism cannot be built on illusions or be random optimism without logical reasons. There must be something supporting it. In the Egyptian case, all economic experts and international institutions agree that we have acceptable reasons that make us optimistic and confident that we are capable of crossing the current economic crisis. Yes, conditions are tough, the implications imposed by global circumstances are impactful, inflation is clear, and citizens are suffering from its impacts.

The state is making strenuous efforts to alleviate the citizens and curb this inflation with initiatives and markets that offer reduced goods and protection programs for the most needy categories. True also, there are fears of the ongoing implications of the economic crisis, but this is not a situation specific to Egypt, but to the world as a whole. However, expectations for Egypt are optimistic compared to many countries, indicating our ability to overcome the crisis and that our economy is capable of achieving this success. This is what the majority of experts with rationality and objective vision see, and also confirmed by world institutions with their reputation and credibility. They see a clear light at the end of the tunnel, and that we are very close to reaching it. Many speak that the end of 2023 will see the end of the crisis, and their evidence for this is numerous and confirmed. But in contrast, there are those with black glasses and pessimistic visions, who refuse to leave the tunnel, but have become its prisoners and insist that Egypt remains a captive of this dark tunnel and does not get out of it nor see a light at the end of it. These are those who do not want Egypt to get out of the crisis, but wish that its crisis increases and it chokes inside the tunnel, and if they could close all windows of light they would do so. They wish it a deadly crisis, destroying the Egyptian economy, and plunging it into the abyss. Because they realize that spreading a state of pessimism among citizens can contribute to further choking the economy, so they never stop talking about everything that can create frustration and anxiety, and increase the dark clouds around the Egyptian economy. Some of them insist on claiming that we have entered a difficult and deep tunnel with no way out, and some of them promote the lie that the crisis is increasing and inflation will continue to rise, without stopping, and the markets will become more inflamed. Others launch false news and deceptive predictions for the exchange rate and the value of the pound, to prove that the economic situation is painful. All these rumors that they try to support with numbers and facts that have no basis, aim to besiege Egypt, and issue a state of economic darkness that worries not only the citizen and increases his anger, but also confuses the markets and opens the door for crisis traders to become more greedy and bold in exploiting the situation, which increases popular tension. At the same time, the level of anxiety rises for any investor thinking of coming to Egypt.

These tremblers aim purely political, which is to avenge the current authority, and to increase the pressure on it by all means. They will not forget that the current national Egyptian leadership has ended their scheme and thwarted their conspiracies. They will not forget that Egypt has written failure and collapse upon them. In recent years, they have tried hard to take revenge and demolish Egypt, but they have failed. They tried through terrorism and we have eliminated it. They resorted to spreading chaos, but it did not work with Egypt. They used sedition, but the Egyptians extinguished its flames with their awareness. Now these lurkers believe that the current economic crisis is their strongest opportunity to avenge the Egyptian state and to retaliate against the people and the political leadership. Unfortunately, some people repeat what these people promote out of ignorance or misunderstanding and do not know that by doing so they are achieving their goals in hitting the Egyptian economy.

Those who insist on pessimism and imposing the theory of the dark tunnel, do not accept any predictions from international institutions optimistic about the Egyptian economy, and do not allow a voice to rise about the truth of Egypt's strength and its ability to cross the crisis. They insist on surrounding everyone with their loud voice filled with rancor and hatred so that we do not listen to the voice of the prestigious international institutions, which agree on optimism about the future of the Egyptian economy and its ability to overcome the crisis and regain its strength. The World Bank, despite its negative expectations for many economies in the world, expects the Egyptian economy to lead the growth rate in the Middle East with a growth rate of 4 percent during the fiscal year 2024 to increase to 4.7 in 2025.

As for the International Monetary Fund, it expected the growth rate of the Egyptian economy to increase to 4 percent during the current fiscal year 2022/2023, then 5.3 percent in the new year, reaching 5.7 percent in the next fiscal year, and 5.9 percent in 2025/2026. In his statement issued in June, he expected Egypt's budget revenues in the current fiscal year to reach about 1.6 trillion pounds, increasing to 1.9 trillion pounds in the next fiscal year, reaching 2.2 trillion pounds in the fiscal year 2024/2025. It also expected that core inflation will decrease to 7 percent by the fiscal year 2024/2025, and that the state budget will record a surplus of 2.1 percent of the total domestic product.

All these predictions were not issued by Egyptian institutions and were not stated by an Egyptian official, but were issued by international entities that do not issue a judgment unless it is confirmed and do not announce a forecast unless it has what supports it from facts and figures on the ground. They are entities that do not flatter but monitor the actual reality, and what their reports have monitored and confirmed clearly indicate that Egypt is on its way to cross the crisis.

If those who are hesitant and wish to see Egypt fall into a crisis are relying on reports from certain economic entities that are biased against Egypt for known political reasons, or they rely on the downgrade by an institution such as "Fitch" for the future outlook of Egypt's economy, this does not give them the right to spread pessimism and disappointment because the reality does not confirm these reports but completely denies them. It is known that this rating's only bet is based on Egypt's potential inability to repay its due debts, which is a false bet and everyone knows that it will not happen. Egypt has never failed to fulfill its obligations and it has the resources and economic capacity to repay all future commitments and quickly get out of the crisis. This is what Dr. Mohamed Maait, Minister of Finance, has clearly and confidently stated: the financial crisis will end before the end of the current year and the country will emerge from the crisis stronger and will compensate its citizens for the suffering that the whole world has been affected by. He did not stop there but assured that the state is committed to funding everything that meets the citizens' needs and alleviate the impact of the global inflation wave. When the Minister of Finance of Egypt says this, it is not just reassurance, but responsible talk resulting from serious monitoring of economic reality and carefully studied numbers that translate a reality on the ground of gigantic national projects that have begun to achieve their intended goals, and ports that occupy advanced global positions such as the East Port Said port which has jumped in four years from the 133rd place to the 10th globally. In the coming years, it will be a part of the important sources of Egypt's income. There is a clear influx of foreign investors injecting their money into diverse projects in Egypt, ranging from industrial to agricultural and tourism. There is also an increase in tourism revenues and the launch of the IPO program, which is expected to generate substantial dollar returns, among many other things.

All this confirms that those who want to besiege us with the theory of the endless dark tunnel and no way out of it are nothing but alarmists seeking ruin. Their goal is to hit the Egyptian economy by spreading a state of despair that we must not surrender to, but we must leave them in this darkness to live their black illusions and wishes that will not come true. We should stand by the institutions of our country, trust in our economy and our ability to cross the crisis. With God's help, we will overcome it, as we have crossed many crises, overcome many challenges, faced many risks, and prevailed. We must insist on optimism and cling to it, for Egypt is not as weak as these rumormongers depict it. Our economy is not fragile as they advertise. Our economy is strong, and most importantly, our will is firm. The steadfast Egyptian mountain will not be shaken by a wind, no matter how strong it is. As President Sisi says, we will overcome the crisis as we have overcome others, and a time will come when we will talk about the economic crisis and how we successfully crossed it. We will remember the dollar crisis as a thing of the past. At that time, everyone who tried to smear and pressure his country and forgot the poet's saying will regret:

"Do not plant thorns in the land you pass by,

For you might return to it barefoot."

Certainly, these people will return from the capitals that shelter and manipulate them to Egypt barefoot, and they will not find anyone to protect them from the thorns they wanted to plant in the good land of Egypt at that time.

* The article published in the Egyptian Al-Musawwar magazine