Some 250,000 – 300,000 people have fled Aj Jazirah State of Sudan following the clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces around Wad Madani

Some 250,000 – 300,000 people have fled Aj Jazirah State following the clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) around Wad Madani, the capital of Aj Jazirah State. The fighting broke out in the morning of 15 December 2023 between the SAF and the RSF on the outskirts of Wad Madani, 136 km southeast of the national capital Khartoum. On December 18, RSF reportedly entered Wad Madani town and by December 19 took control of the city.

There were many people displaced from Wad Madani and other parts of Aj Jazirah State arriving in Gedaref, Kassala, Red Sea, Sennar and White Nile state. Mobile network and internet connectivity challenges in parts of Aj Jazirah, White Nile and other adjacent areas are making it difficult for partners to collate information.

Many IDPs are gathering at the sites (collective centers) in and around Gedaref and Sennar. The majority sought shelter within the host communities, and the local authorities and partners in Gedaref estimate that about 15,000 people have sought shelter with the host communities in Gedaref town. There is urgent need for shelter, food and non-food supplies for the newly arriving IDPs. Some of the new IDPs are living with host communities in the city. More than 6 million people have been displaced within and outside Sudan since mid-April 2023.

A least 1.2 million people fled Sudan since mid-April seeking safety and protection in neighboring countries. Sudan is now the largest child displacement crisis in the world, with 3 million children fleeing widespread violence. OHCHR raises concerns of women and girls being abducted, allegedly forcibly married and held for ransom. Sudan is one of the top four hotspots of highest concern for food insecurity.

Conflict escalated across Sudan, with initial fighting around Khartoum expanding into other areas of the country, particularly Darfur. The new conflict forced more than 218,000 people to flee across borders and displaced over 730,000 people inside the country in the first four weeks of the conflict. These new displacements were in addition to the almost 3.8 million internally displaced people (IDPs) in Sudan, primarily concentrated in Darfur, prior to the recent escalation in violence.

 Humanitarian Response Plan

Three scenarios were developed that best represented the large uncertainties in the displacement baseline and future development of the conflict and its impacts. The worst-case scenario was for over 3 million people to be displaced by October.

However, the conflict and crisis escalated much faster and with a wider geographical spread than was anticipated. By the beginning of August 2023, estimated displacement in the country already surpassed the forecast in the worst-case scenario, and the numbers continued to rise.

As of November 2023, IOM estimates that 4.9 million people had been displaced internally since the new conflict began in April (see chart below). With nearly 1.2 million people leaving Sudan for neighboring countries, particularly Chad, Egypt, and South Sudan, total displacement due to the current crisis is estimated above 6 million people.

The numbers now range from a worst-case scenario of 10 million displaced people by April 2024 to a best-case scenario of around 3 million displaced people, all related to the conflict that started in April 2023.

The three scenarios are:

Worst case: conflict intensifies across the country, with continued displacement from Khartoum and new conflict in previously unaffected urban centers driving significant growth in levels of displacement.

Status quo: while the current conflict does not spread to new areas of the country, current hotspots continue to see fighting, with only temporary ceasefires and pause in conflict allowing humanitarian access and operations to resume, but displacement continues to grow at the current pace.

Best case: successful international mediation reduces hostilities across the country, as humanitarian access, reconstruction, and initial return operations start to show reductions in displacement.

Published under International Cooperation with "Sindh Courier"